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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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