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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
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