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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 July 21
END TO COAL POWER BROUGHT FORWARD TO OCTOBER 2024
Press Release: The deadline to phase out coal from Great Britain's energy system has been brought forward by a whole year, highlighting the UK& ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY BUILD 600 NEW UNPROFITABLE COAL PLANTS? - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Governments in Asia are planning 600 new coal plants that could lose investors $150 billion and derail efforts to limit temperature rise in line wi ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
FIVE ASIAN COUNTRIES ACCOUNT FOR 80% OF NEW COAL POWER INVESTMENT - THE GUARDIAN
Five Asian countries are jeopardising global climate ambitions by investing in 80% of the world’s planned new coal plants, according to a rep ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR RECORDED AN IMPROVED REVENUE IN Q1 2021; REVENUE INCREASED BY 49% QOQ TO US$160 MILLION ON THE BACK OF COAL PRICE RECOVERY
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (“DOID”) released its consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owned ...
Wednesday, 30 June 21
BUMA SIGNED MINING AGREEMENT WITH ADARO
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA"), has entered into an agreement for the p ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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