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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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