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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 July 21
U.S. FOSSIL FUEL CONSUMPTION FELL BY 9% IN 2020, THE LOWEST LEVEL IN NEARLY 30 YEARS - EIA
U.S. fossil fuel consumption fell by 9% in 2020, the lowest level in nearly 30 years
In 2020, total consumption of fossil fuels in t ...
Thursday, 15 July 21
IN 2020, U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FELL TO ITS LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1965 - EIA
U.S. coal production totaled 535 million short tons (MMst) in 2020, a 24% decrease from the 706 MMst mined in 2019 and the lowest level of coal pro ...
Wednesday, 14 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
In its latest Global Economic Prospects report, the world bank recorded the strongest post-recession global growth in 80 years, but emerging and de ...
Tuesday, 13 July 21
JAPAN STILL SEEKING TO EXPLOIT COAL POWER LOOPHOLES - IEEFA
JBIC wants to continue burdening developing nations with its expensive coal-fired power technology
Japan is continuing to push its expensive c ...
Sunday, 11 July 21
COAL SHOWS ITS STAYING POWER AS ECONOMIES BOUNCE BACK - THE WALL STREET JOURNAL
Coal use is surging in some of the world’s largest economies as electricity demand rebounds from the pandemic, illustrating the challenges to ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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