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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 August 21
CHINA COAL INVENTORY THINS AMID PEAK POWER DEMAND- STATE MEDIA : REUTERS
China’s coal inventories have dropped to near historic lows since August due to peak summer electricity demand and transportation bottlenecks ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
THE INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SURGED TO A FRESH RECORD HIGH OF USD 130.99 A TON IN AUGUST 2021
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference ( HBA) surged to a fresh record high of USD 130.99 a ton in August 2021.
The ...
Wednesday, 04 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Unlike the Dry Bulk and Container sectors where freight rates have surged into 2021, the tankers market continues to experience lackluster earnings ...
Sunday, 01 August 21
SEABORNE HARD COAL TRADE IN 2020 DECREASED BY 149 MILLION MT, OR 12.1%, TO 1,083 MILLION MT - GERMAN COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
- Reduced coal-fired power plant fleet secures Germany’s power supply in severe winter of 2020/2021; little wind availability and hence stron ...
Wednesday, 28 July 21
IN THE PHILIPPINES, COAL’S DEMISE MAKES WAY FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY BOOM - IEEFA
Imported gas lock-in could undermine the economic benefits of a clean energy transition
The Philippines’ energy sector is on t ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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