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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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