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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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