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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
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- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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