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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 11 September 21
RECORD CHINESE COAL FUTURES SIGNAL NEED TO BOOST OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s coal prices have climbed to a record high, signaling the need for more production in the short term, even as the government tries to ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
IN 2022, EIA EXPECTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 47 MMST TO 648 MMST
U.S. Coal production accordng to EIA's forecast, totals 601 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 66 MMst more than in 2020, EIA's Short-Term ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES THERMAL COAL PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON TIGHT SUPPLY
Fitch Ratings has increased all its Qinhuangdao 5,500kcal/kg price assumptions and short- and medium-term Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg price assumptions ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
COAL IS STILL KING; INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE ABOVE $150 FOR FIRST TIME IN HISTORY
COALspot.com: The Indonesian Coal Price Reference rose dramatically from US$ 127.05 in February 2011, to a peak of US$ 150.03 in September 2021, be ...
Wednesday, 08 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last August was extremely hot in the dry bulk market with rates rising at levels that we have years to witness. The dry bulk index exceeded the 4,0 ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Coal Association
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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