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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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