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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 20 August 21
ARE WE LOOKING AT THE NEXT DRY BULK SUPER CYCLE? IS IT EVEN A CYCLE? - BIMCO
Throughout the first half of the year, talk of a new dry bulk super cycle has been on many lips as commodity prices have soared to multi-year highs ...
Friday, 20 August 21
BIMCO'S SHIPPING NUMBER OF THE WEEK: CHINESE IRON ORE IMPORTS FALL TO 14-MONTH LOW IN JULY - PETER SAND
Chinese iron ore imports fell to 88.5 million tonnes in July, the lowest level since May 2020. The fall in July means that accumulated imports are ...
Friday, 20 August 21
SOARING DEMAND FOR THE WORLD’S LEAST-LIKED COMMODITY SEES THERMAL COAL PRICES JUMP 106% THIS YEAR - CNBC
Soaring electricity demand, infrastructure woes and a surge in global gas prices have triggered an extraordinary rally for the world’s least ...
Friday, 20 August 21
CHINA’S IRON ORE IMPORTS CONTRACTED YEAR-ON-YEAR BY 2% IN 2018 AND GREW YEAR-ON-YEAR BY ONLY 1% IN 2019 - COMMODORE RESEARCH
Examining the last ten years of China’s crude steel output and iron ore imports shows that China’s iron ore imports have stayed r ...
Friday, 13 August 21
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORTS TO JAPAN DECLINED BY -26.3% YOY TO 11.9 MLN TONNES IN THE FIRST 7 MONTHS OF 2021; STILL THE SECOND LARGEST SOURCE FOR JAPAN’S COAL IMPORTS IS INDONESIA - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade. Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12.7% year-on-yea ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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