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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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