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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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