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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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