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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 28 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Despite the current challenges as a result of the global pandemic, 2021 is turning out to be a landmark year for the iron ore market with spot pric ...
Monday, 26 April 21
CHINA TO FURTHER CUT COAL USE IN 2021 - XINHUA
China aims to reduce the share of coal in its energy mix to less than 56% this year, according to a guideline released by the National Energy Admin ...
Wednesday, 21 April 21
COAL FINANCING COSTS HAVE SURGED IN PAST 10 YEARS - UNIVERSITY OF OXFORD - THE GUARDIAN
Coal financing costs have surged over the last decade as investors demand returns four times as high as the payoff required from renewable energy p ...
Tuesday, 20 April 21
US DOLLAR LIBOR TRANSITION IN ASSET FINANCE - WHERE ARE WE NOW? - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
Since our last article, there has been a raft of regulatory and market body announcements relating to the transition away from LIBOR and the follow ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
INDONESIA LIKELY TO WITNESS 119 OIL AND GAS PROJECTS STARTS ACROSS VALUE CHAIN BY 2025, SAYS GLOBALDATA
Indonesia is expected to witness 119 oil and gas projects commencing their operations across value chain during 2021-2025, accounting for 6% of the ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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