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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 March 21
BATTERIES ARE REPLACING COAL NOT GAS - IEEFA
No amount of government subsidies can halt gas’s decline
Batteries are replacing coal not gas.
Today the early ...
Friday, 12 March 21
RENEWABLES SHOULD BE FOCUS OF VIETNAM’S DRAFT PDP8, NOT COAL AND GAS - IEEFA
Evidence was clear to inform the next stage of Vietnam’s power development
Vietnam’s recently published draft power deve ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
U.S. TO PRODUCE 581 MMST IN 2021, UP 8% FROM 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 581 MMst in 2021, 42 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to rise by a furth ...
Thursday, 11 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during the first months of 2021, we have come across a new era in which Owners chose the shipyards to repair their ...
Monday, 08 March 21
MARCH 2021 INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SETTLES LOWER
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for March 2021 settles at US$ 84.49 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- VISA Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Planning Commission, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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