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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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