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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 15 January 21
OVER US$50 BILLION IN GAS POWER PROJECTS AND LNG IMPORT FACILITIES AT RISK OF CANCELLATION IN BANGLADESH, PAKISTAN AND VIETNAM - IEEFA
Pakistan and Bangladesh have already cancelled tenders for LNG imports
Emerging markets such as Vietnam, Pakistan and Bangladesh tha ...
Friday, 15 January 21
VIETNAM'S EXTRAORDINARY ROOFTOP SOLAR SUCCESS DEALS ANOTHER BLOW TO THE REMAINING COAL PIPELINE - IEEFA
9.3 gigawatts peak of solar capacity, equal to 6 coal power plants, installed in less than a year
Vietnam’s solar power indust ...
Friday, 15 January 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES UP - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price rose slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge of ...
Thursday, 14 January 21
KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITED BIDS FOR AUSTRALIAN COAL FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co. Ltd, issued an International tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Min.5,700 kcal/kg NCV coal of Australian Origin ...
Wednesday, 13 January 21
CHINA THERMAL GENCO PROFITS FACE PRESSURE AMID POWER SHORTAGES - FITHCH WIRE
High coal and gas prices will put near-term pressure on margins for thermal power generators in China, says Fitch Ratings. However, the power short ...
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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