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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 06 January 21
INDONESIA EXCEEDS COAL PRODUCTION TARGET IN 2020
Indonesian coal production reached 557.54 Million Tons in 2020 1.37% higher than of last year’s total target of 550.00 Million Tons, accordin ...
Wednesday, 06 January 21
CHINESE CITIES REPORTEDLY GO DARK AS COUNTRY FACES SHORTAGE OF COAL, A MAJOR AUSTRALIAN EXPORT - CNBC
Several major Chinese cities have reportedly gone dark as authorities limit power usage, citing a shortage of coal.
Analysts said pr ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 136 points Monday, up 0.91 percent week on week.
The index, released by China Ta ...
Tuesday, 05 January 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SOARS TO HIGHEST ONE-MONTH INCREASE SINCE DECEMBER 2016
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for January 2021 settles above $75 for the first time since July 2019 and to highest one-month inc ...
Monday, 04 January 21
U.S. RENEWABLE ENERGY CONSUMPTION SURPASSES COAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN OVER 130 YEARS - EIA
In 2019, U.S. annual energy consumption from renewable sources exceeded coal consumption for the first time since before 1885, according to the U.S ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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