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Wednesday, 17 November 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 It has been another declining week for the dry bulk market and evidently, we are seeing asset values gradually losing momentum as well. Following a restocking spree during September and early October that drove dry bulk rates at more than 13 year highs, the market corrected with a sharp discharge of congestion at Chinese ports flooding the Pacific market with ballasters. At the same time, FFAs are pricing in further weakness in the months ahead and SnP buying interest has decreased, putting a halt to the appreciation trend that has been unfolding since the beginning of the year. It is notable, that traditionally towards the end of Q4 we are seeing a decrease in period rates in view of weaker Q1 - even though Q1/2021 proved counter seasonally positive for the sector- and a slowdown in asset values growth is normally tracking this trend, which could potentially create a buying window until current headwinds reverse.
There are several arguments why the market is likely to stabilize in 2022 and witness improvements. The dry bulk fleet growth factor is clearly supportive for the demand supply growth balance to remain in favor of demand. Nominal fleet growth is projected to be marginal over the next year on the back of low orderbook (~7% of the fleet) and increased shipyards’ deliveries slippage rate following the 2021 flurry in container vessels order.
On the demand side, the dry bulk market has benefitted of higher inflation that started from the rally in metal prices, followed by energy related commodities in Q42021. Inflation has been demand driven, triggered by the record high economic stimulus globally combined with supply bottlenecks and years of underinvestment in fossil fuel commodities. Coal continues to remain the bright spot for the rest of the year. The elimination of coal trade between China and Australia combined with a colder winter has supported coal ton-miles in 2021 and expected to continue to do so in the short term as Beijing is trying to boost supply domestically while the heating season amid a La Nina year is still ahead of us.
Looking further into 2022, our analysts expect high commodity prices in 2021 priced into the forward curves to trigger a supply response from miners and alleviate disruptions in industrial production stemming from current energy related commodity shortages. A gradual monetary tightening in the context of high inflation marks decelerating economic growth which is normal during the mid-cycle transition, however a slow down in growth does not mean negative growth. China’s decline in credit growth and infrastructure spending is a concern but likely to reverse in 2022 - economic growth is expected to reflate following the end of Winter Olympics in Q1 2022 with a recovery in crude steel production absorbing part of the iron ore stockpiles that are being built during the current quarter and into Q1 2022. Minor bulk growth is also expected to remain firm supported by the US infrastructure bill, as well as the global energy transition requiring minor bulk intensive technologies and along with the easing of steel and aluminum tariffs between the EU and the US will be beneficial for the Supramax and Handysize sector which have been better performers within this year based on ROIC. Finally, global grains demand is expected to remain underpinned amid bumper crops projected from major exporters for the next marketing year - particularly soybeans.
By Vasilis Moiris
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 29 December 20
CHINA COKING COAL FUTURES RISE FOR THIRD DAY ON SUPPLY WORRIES - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures extended gains into a third session on Monday, jumping as much as 6.2% as lower imports, sliding inventories and mines ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
COKING COAL'S DECLINE LIKELY TO FOLLOW THE PATH OF THERMAL COAL’S PROGRESSIVE DEMISE - IEEFA
Technology disruption the likely theme of global energy markets in 2021
There has been a growing tsunami of climate commitment annou ...
Wednesday, 23 December 20
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we all know, China forges more steel than the rest of the world combined, and even during this unprecedented pandemic, the nation is set to brea ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
2021 DRY BULK OUTLOOK - SUPPLY GROWTH - TORVALD KLAVENESS
In the first article in the series we mentioned that dry bulk freight was in a super cycle between 2001 and 2008. The growth in global yard capacit ...
Tuesday, 22 December 20
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND IS SET TO EXPAND DESPITE PLUMMETING IN 2020 - IEA
Coal consumption in India amounted to 979 Mt in 2019, with the largest share being thermal coal (including lignite) for electricity generation (687 ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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