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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 13 October 21
FBX INDEX: THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF SHORT-TERM FORECASTING - LARS JENSEN
Will freight rates on Asia-Europe or the Transpacific reach 40.000 USD/FFE in the run-up prior to Chinese New Year 2022? Or will they start droppin ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA FLOODS: COAL PRICE HITS FRESH HIGH AS MINES SHUT - BBC
The price of coal used in China’s power plants has surged to a new record high as another of the country’s key mining regions is hit by ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
BUMA SIGNS CONDITIONAL AGREEMENT FOR AUSTRALIAN ASSET ACQUISITION
PT Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama, through its newly incorporated Australian subsidiary, BUMA International Pty ...
Tuesday, 12 October 21
INDONESIA'S COAL-BASED POWER PLANTS ARE SUBJECT TO CARBON TAX NEXT YEAR, ELECTRICITY COSTS COULD RISE! - CNBC
The Indonesian government is planning plans to implement a carbon tax of IDR 30 per kilogram (kg) of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO2e) or equivalent ...
Monday, 11 October 21
COAL ABANDONMENT IN POWER GENERATION PROMOTED GAS DEMAND GROWTH IN EUROPE - TOP MANAGER: TASS
Accelerated abandonment of coal in power generation and the overall recovery of economic activity facilitated gas demand growth in Europe and led t ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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