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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 14 October 21
SPIKING COAL PRICES: DON’T BLAME THE ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Volatility highlights urgency for renewables-based energy solutions
“Energy crisis.” The phrase evokes nearly-forgotten ...
Thursday, 14 October 21
EIA FORECASTS U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALS 588 MMST IN 2021, UP 53 MMST YOY
U.S. coal production in EIA's forecasts totals 588 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 53 MMst more than in 2020.
According ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
COAL PRICES ARE ROARING BACK AMID A GLOBAL ENERGY CRUNCH - SYDNEY MORNING HERALD
Soaring coal prices have placed Australia’s mining and energy exports on track to reach a record $349 billion this year evenas the value of t ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
CHINA ISN'T THE ONLY HUGE ASIAN ECONOMY WITH A COAL SHORTAGE NOW - CNBC
China is not the only Asian giant grappling with an energy crunch — India is also teetering on the edge of a power crisis.
Mos ...
Wednesday, 13 October 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following up on our insight on May 2021, where we discussed about the Capesize market outlook for the second half of the year, we are pleased to se ...
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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