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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 09 October 21
CHINA POWER CUTS: COAL MINERS ORDERED TO BOOST OUTPUT, SAY REPORTS - BBC
Beijing has reportedly ordered China’s coal mines to boost output as an energy shortage across the country has seen millions of homes and bus ...
Friday, 08 October 21
SEPTEMBER CRUDE OIL TANKER DEMOLISHING HITS 39-MONTHS HIGH AT 1.9M DWT - PETER SAND
Has the lid finally come off for crude oil tanker demolition in 2021? If judged by the 1.9m DWT of capacity that was removed in September, the answ ...
Friday, 08 October 21
COAL SHORTAGE MAY LEAD TO RISE IN STEEL PRICES IN COMING MONTHS: JSPL MD - PTI
Steel prices are expected to increase in the coming months as companies are buying coal at three times the rates a month ago, said a top industry e ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE: ANOTHER MONTH, ANOTHER RALLY
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference in a steep climb for most of second and third quarters of 2021 as it reached a pinnacle of $161.63 Oc ...
Wednesday, 06 October 21
EUROPEAN COAL FUTURES CLIMB TO 13-YEAR PEAK - REUTERS
European coal futures rose to a 13-year high and physical thermal coal prices were at record highs as rallying gas prices and strong Asian demand f ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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