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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 05 October 21
CAPESIZE MARKET WAS IN A STEEP CLIMB FOR MOST OF THIS WEEK - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
The Capesize market was in a steep climb for most of this week as it reached a pinnacle of $74,786 Wednesday before stalling, regather ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
THE WRITING IS ON THE WALL: AUSTRALIA’S COAL ERA IS OVER - YAHOO!FINANCE
As the fringe of Australian politics strives to pump up the coal industry, facts show that coal production has started its long run decline.
&n ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
SURGING COAL PRICES SPLIT ASIAN BUYERS INTO RICH AND POOR - REUTERS
As seaborne coal in Asia trades at, or near, record highs, there are early signs of demand destruction, especially among price-sensitive buyers suc ...
Wednesday, 29 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker Asset values have surprised to the upside, despite the downward pressure on the freight market. Tanker rates have been hovering close to the ...
Tuesday, 28 September 21
THE MAIDEN EDITION OF DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021 CONCLUDES SUCCESSFULLY
Press Release: DIVE TECHNOLOGY SUMMIT 2021, a one-day conference on the recent technological advancements in the Industrial Diving industry conclud ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
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