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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 22 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The unfolding last week of a trilateral defence pact between the United States, Australia, the United Kingdom (AUKUS) envisages a wide range of col ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINESE COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA DROP 98.6% AS RESTRICTIONS BITE - BIMCO
In the first seven months of the year Chinese coal imports from Australia have totalled just 780,000 tonnes as Chinese restrictions on Australian c ...
Tuesday, 21 September 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT RESUMES GROWTH IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 0.8 percent year on year to 340 million tonnes last month, official data showed.
The growth rate ...
Wednesday, 15 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the oil price sell off during most of August, partly triggered by oil demand fears amid the delta COVID variant, oil prices have resumed ...
Saturday, 11 September 21
CIL STEPS UP SUPPLY COAL TO POWER SECTOR; PER-DAY AVERAGE 20 PC HIGHER THAN LAST YEAR - PTI
State-owned CIL on Friday said it has stepped up the supply of coal to the power sector in the first eight days of the current month, with an avera ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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