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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 01 September 21
KOMIPO TO BUY 1.56 MILLION TONS OF 5600 NAR COAL OF AUSTRALIA OR SOUTH AFRICAN ORIGIN FOR 2022 - 2024
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Wednesday, 01 September 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As the summer season is coming to an end, the dry bulk market continues to rally. The confidence that the outstanding freight market performance ha ...
Monday, 30 August 21
68% OF U.S. COAL FLEET RETIREMENTS SINCE 2011 WERE PLANTS FUELED BY BITUMINOUS COAL - EIA
In 2011, the United States had 317.6 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired electric generation capacity. About 88.7 GW of that capacity was retired in the d ...
Friday, 27 August 21
ALL YOU NEED TO KNOW ABOUT COAL'S MASSIVE RALLY AND NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK - CNBCTV18
Australia’s thermal coal at Newcastle Port, the benchmark for the vast Asian market, has surged over 100 percent this year to trade above $16 ...
Friday, 27 August 21
THE ECONOMICS OF INDONESIA’S DIESEL POWER PLANT TO GAS CONVERSION PLAN ARE PROBLEMATIC - IEEFA
Deploying new small-scale LNG is an uphill battle for PGN
Indonesian gas is currently in a precarious position, where the government needs to ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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