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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 26 August 21
INDIA IMPORTED 17.06 MLN TONNES OF LPG IN 2020; UP 11.5% Y-O-Y
Global LPG trade remained fairly positive in 2020, despite the global economic impact from COVID-19, and surged strongly in the first half of 2021. ...
Thursday, 26 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
24th of August 2021, the Baltic Dry Index reached 4,201, a YTD high and the highest since May 2010.
Cape 5TC daily average @ 51,472
...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
COAL PRICE RALLY TO PRESSURE CHINESE POWER GENCOS’ MARGINS FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the pressure on Chinese power generation companies’ (gencos) profit from the recent coal price surge to weaken their cr ...
Tuesday, 24 August 21
TIGHT POWER SUPPLY IN CHINA AMID STRONG DEMAND, HIGH COAL PRICES - FITCH RATINGS
China experienced tight power supply in 1H21 on stronger than expected power demand as economic activity continued to recover, Fitch Ratings says i ...
Monday, 23 August 21
CHINESE COAL PRODUCTION RISES 4.9 PCT IN 1ST 7 MONTHS OF 2021 - NBS
Official figures demonstrated that the Chinese raw coal production surged 4.9 percent annually to 2.26 billion tonnes in the January-July period of ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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