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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 12 August 21
ONLY 3 VLCCS SOLD FOR DEMOLITION IN 2021 AS SECONDHAND PRICES TEMPT - BIMCO
During the first seven months of 2021, only three actively trading Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) have been sold for demolition. The current mar ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
U.S: EIA EXPECTS COAL EXPORTS TO TOTAL 90 MMST IN 2021, 30% INCREASE FROM 2020
Coal production in EIA's forecast totals 607 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, an increase of 13% over 2020.
EIA is also ...
Wednesday, 11 August 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Energy is at the core of the global climate dialogue as the climate challenge is essentially an energy challenge. Policy experts around the world a ...
Tuesday, 10 August 21
34 INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES TEMPORARILY BANNED FOR COAL EXPORTS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) has imposed sanctions in the form of a coal export ban for 34 coal companies as reported by CNB ...
Monday, 09 August 21
AIIB MAY OFFICIALLY END COAL FINANCING IN 2022 - CHINA DAILY
The Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank may officially rule out coal projects if it updates its energy strategy next year, after shunning funding ...
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- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Planning Commission, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
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