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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 28 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Assessing the ship repair sector during this first half of the year, we continue to come across surprises and new restrictions which are trembling ...
Saturday, 24 July 21
UNDERSTANDING INDIA'S LATEST PEAK POWER DEMAND RECORD - IEEFA
Ramping up solar will be crucial as peak power demand hits during the day
At around noon on 7 July 2021, India’s instantaneous ...
Wednesday, 21 July 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Dry Buk Sales and Purchase activity has heated up during 2021, reaching record high levels during the first half of the year. The increased interes ...
Monday, 19 July 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT UP 6.4 PCT IN H1 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output climbed 6.4 percent year on year to 1.95 billion tonnes in the first six months of the year, official data showed.
...
Saturday, 17 July 21
COAL PRICES TRADE AT DECADE HIGH OF $140 PER TONNE, HERE ARE SOME FACTORS AT PLAY: CNBC-TV18
Coal prices are trading at $140 per tonne. In the last one week, coal has seen more than 8 percent gains; the last one month has seen 24 percent ju ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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