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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Sunday, 11 July 21
ROBUST CHINA COAL DEMAND AMID AUSTRALIA IMPORT BAN FUELS PRICE RALLY - REUTERS
Seaborne coal has become a quiet winner among energy commodities, lacking the attention of higher-profile crude oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) ...
Saturday, 10 July 21
OVERESTIMATED LCOES OF COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS CREATE A FINANCIAL BUBBLE - IEEFA
Massive stranded asset risk detrimentally affects the financial and power distribution
India’s future coal-fired power project pipeline ...
Friday, 09 July 21
EIA FORECASTS COAL’S GENERATION SHARE IN U.S TO RISE FROM 20% IN 2020 TO 24% THIS YEAR BUT TO FALL TO 22% NEXT YEAR
The July Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) of EIA remains subject to heightened levels of uncertainty related to the ongoing economic recovery from ...
Friday, 09 July 21
KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. INVITES BIDS FOR 1.86 MILLION TONS OF COAL OF 5600 & 4000 NCV COAL FOR THREE YEARS
COALspot.com: South Korea’s KOREA SOUTH-EAST POWER CO., LTD. (KOEN) has issued an international tender for 280,000 – 300,000 MT of Min. ...
Friday, 09 July 21
CAN WE EXPECT AFFORDABLE POWER SUPPLY BY REPLACING COAL BASED POWER WITH LNG? - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
Bangladesh government’s recent decision to cancel the contracts for 10 coal fired power plants in late June 2021 has invited interest in the ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- The University of Queensland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
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