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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 08 July 21
STRONGEST HALF YEAR FOR SHIPPING MARKETS SINCE 2008 - CLARKSONS
A year on from peak trade disruption, we update our half year report for the shipping industry profiling a strong recovery and some exceptional ind ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE RISES TO 112 MONTHS HIGH IN JULY 2021; 121.15% HIGHER COMPARED TO THAT IN JULY 2020 PRICE
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for July 2021 fixed at US$ 115.35 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal price referenc ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 37% YOY IN 1Q21 DUE TO ADVERSE WEATHER CONDITIONS - FITCH RATINGS
Chinese coal imports declined by 25% yoy in 5M21as a result of both restrictions on Australian coal and the high base in 2020. Import volume in Jan ...
Tuesday, 06 July 21
INDONESIAN 4,200 INDEX HAS ALSO INCREASED TO OVER USD50 PER TONNE SINCE MAY THIS YEAR REFLECTING STRONG CHINESE IMPORT DEMAND - FITCH RATINGS
Price Surge Since March
APAC thermal coal has resumed its price surge since March this year. The benchmark Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg grade c ...
Thursday, 01 July 21
WHY INDIA’S SOLAR POWER TARIFFS ARE CLIMBING AFTER HITTING RECORD LOWS LAST YEAR - IEEFA
What’s behind the recent increase?
Solar tariffs are deflationary. Prices have fallen by 75% in seven years in India, and in 2 ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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