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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 30 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The strong freight performance since the beginning of year has continued for the dry bulk market with earnings being at the highest level in over a ...
Monday, 28 June 21
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA THREATENS TO REVOKE 2,350 MINING BUSINESS PERMITS
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources said that the revocation of mining business permits was in accordance with President Jokowi's inst ...
Sunday, 27 June 21
INDONESIA'S STATE-OWNED UTILITY PLN'S 2060 NET ZERO AMBITION NOT WITHOUT FLAWS AND GAPS - IEEFA
Indonesia on the right emissions reduction pathway but same old coal stories persist
Recent announcements by Indonesia’s state-owned uti ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
COAL PRICES HIT DECADE HIGH DESPITE EFFORTS TO WEAN THE WORLD OFF CARBON - WSJ
Rebounding electricity usage and scanty rainfall in China have added fuel to the rally
Coal prices have climbed to their highest lev ...
Saturday, 26 June 21
KOSPO INVITED BIDS FOR 480,000 MT OF COAL PER ANNUM
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 480,000 MT of NCV 1 Min. 5,600 (Spec 1) /Min. 5,0 ...
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- The University of Queensland
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- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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