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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 24 June 21
FEBRUARY'S INCREASE IN COAL-FIRED ELECTRIC GENERATION REDUCED U.S. COAL STOCKPILES - EIA
Coal stockpiles at U.S. power plants decreased significantly from December 2020 to February 2021, including a draw of nearly 16 million tons in Feb ...
Wednesday, 23 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The first half of 2021 has brought a very sharp and continued recovery in the dry bulk market and while many where expecting a relatively strong ma ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
2020 PROVED TO BE A TRULY TERRIBLE YEAR FOR GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL TRADE; CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
2020 proved to be a truly terrible year for global seaborne coal trade.
Total global loadings in the 12 months of 2020 were down -12 ...
Thursday, 17 June 21
FITCH RATINGS RAISES SHORT-TERM OIL AND GAS PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has increased its 2021 and 2022 oil price assumptions for the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) benchmarks due to stronger year ...
Wednesday, 16 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“While approaching the second half of the year and summer season is just around the corner, COVID vaccination programs are steadily moving fo ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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