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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Monday, 14 June 21
'WISHFUL THINKING': WHY CHINA NEEDS AUSTRALIAN IRON ORE FOR 'MANY YEARS' TO COME - YAHOO FINANCE AU
A “wintry period”.
That’s what’s expected to happen to Australia’s economy “when” China st ...
Sunday, 13 June 21
COAL AND LNG’S SURGE IN ASIA PLAYS INTO RENEWABLE ENERGY HANDS - REUTERS
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) and thermal coal prices in Asia have been roaring ahead in recent months amid strong demand, but while welcome news for ...
Friday, 11 June 21
5 REASONS GLOBAL SHIPPING COSTS WILL CONTINUE TO RISE - ING
No short-term relief
Shipping costs have been growing strongly since the autumn of 2020, but the first months of this year have seen a new surg ...
Friday, 11 June 21
ASIA COAL PRICES SURGE, BUT CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE MEANS RALLY IS UNEVEN - REUTERS
Thermal coal prices across Asia have surged to multi-year highs amid strong demand and some supply constraints, but some types of the fuel have don ...
Thursday, 10 June 21
INDONESIA COAL EARNINGS RECOVERY TO SLOW AFTER STRONG 1Q - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the recovery in operating and financial performance of Indonesian coal miners and coal contractors to slow during rest of 202 ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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