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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 10 June 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO TOTAL 600 MMST IN 2021, 11% MORE THAN IN 2020 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 600 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, which is 61 MMst (11%) more than in 2020.
The increase is dri ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
The In-Person Maritime Event
SHIPTEK INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE & AWARDS 2021
culminates successfully in Dubai
Press Release: ...
Wednesday, 09 June 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
“Counter cyclical investments.” usually take place by investing in a “bad” market at the point that ensures that the acquir ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
KOMIPO INVITED 5600 NAR COAL OFFERS FOR THREE YEARS SUPPLY; 520,000 MT PER YEAR
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
Saturday, 05 June 21
IT'S TIME FOR THE BIDEN ADMINISTRATION TO CHAMPION RENEWABLE ENERGY IN THE PHILIPPINES, NOT NUCLEAR OR FOSSIL GAS - IEEFA
Fossil gas and nuclear investments risk locking in costly, outdated infrastructure for the long-term
The United States has spent the ...
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- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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