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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 01 June 21
BUMA PRODUCED 11.4 MILLION TONNES OF COAL IN 4Q 2020, 5% LOWER COMPARED TO 12.2 MILLION TONNES IN 4Q 2019
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. presents its newsletter with consolidated financial and operating results that include its primary and wholly-owne ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
PAKISTAN IS PLANNING TO END COAL IMPORTS, WORSENING OUTLOOK FOR SOUTH AFRICAN COAL - IEEFA
The growing and irreversible risks being faced by South African coal exporters
As Thungela Resources’ CEO attempts to talk up ...
Sunday, 30 May 21
G7 COAL FINANCE EXIT AND WHY IT MATTERS FOR INDIA - IEEFA
While India doesn’t rely on export credit finance to fund new coal plants, there are material implications
The commitment by the Group o ...
Saturday, 29 May 21
SKULD’S IMO 2020 SULPHUR CAP EXPERIENCE
More than a year has passed since the International Maritime Organization (IMO) mandate for the 0.50% sulphur cap for marine fuel (MARPOL Annex VI) ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
KOMIPO INVITED BIDS FOR 1.56 MILLION TONS OF BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd (KOMIPO) has issued an international tender for total 1,560,000 MT of Bituminous Coal to be used a ...
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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