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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
KOREA SOUTHERN POWER INVITED BIDS FOR 870,000 MT OF MIN 5300 NCV COAL FOR 2021 TO 2023.
COALspot.com: Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO) has issued an International tender for total 870,000 MT of Min 5,300 kcal/kg NCV coal for Augu ...
Tuesday, 25 May 21
CHINA’S COAL OUTPUT RISES IN FIRST FOUR MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 11.1 percent year on year to 1.29 billion tonnes in the first four months of 2021, official data showed.
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Tuesday, 25 May 21
MARINE SHIPPERS BULK UP: ANOTHER GAME OF CHICKEN IN THE WORKS? - THE KOREA TIMES
Global shipping companies have been placing orders for large ships, with many anticipating further increased competition within the next three year ...
Friday, 21 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The dry bulk market’s counter seasonal surge so far into the first half of the year -in a sort of 2010 manner - and Capesize’s recent r ...
Wednesday, 12 May 21
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TO INCREASE BY 43 MMST IN 2021 TOTAL 582 MILLION SHORT TONS - EIA
U.S. energy Information Administration expects U.S. coal production to total 582 million short tons (MMst) in 2021, 43 MMst (8%) more than in 2020. ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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