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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-COVID-19 LEVELS; THERMAL OUTPUT STRONG - FITCH RATINGS
Rising Consumption: Total power consumption rose by 21.2% yoy to 1,921.9GWh in 1Q21 due to the fast recovery of China’s economy, after a drop ...
Thursday, 27 May 21
CHINA'S POWER DEMAND EXCEEDS PRE-PANDEMIC LEVELS; RENEWABLES TO DRIVE DEVELOPMENT - FITCH RATINGS
China's power consumption exceeded the pre-Covid-19 levels in 1Q21 due to the country's fast economic recovery, with strong output from the ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
THE INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FOR MAY 2021 SETTLES AT US$ 89.74 PER TON
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for May 2021 settles at US$ 89.74 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pric ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Last year crude tankers’ newbuilding contracting activity was devastated by the economic effects of the Covid-19 pandemic and the cloud of un ...
Wednesday, 26 May 21
NEW POWER AND ENERGY MASTER PLAN MUST BE DESIGNED IN BANGLADESH'S BEST INTERESTS, NOT JAPAN'S - IEEFA
JICA must deliver a low or zero emissions plan as promised, not fund Matarbari 2 coal plant
Clear understandings from the Bangladesh ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
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