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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 04 June 21
NEW COAL-FIRED POWER PLANTS IN INDIA WILL BE ECONOMICALLY UNVIABLE - IEEFA
Coal capacity additions face major stranded asset risk
Much of India’s 33 gigawatts (GW) of coal-fired power capacity currently under co ...
Thursday, 03 June 21
JUNE HBA IS HITTING ABOVE $100 AND SETTLED AT ITS HIGHEST SINCE OCTOBER 2020
COALspot.com: The Indonesia coal price reference for June 2021 settles at US$ 100.33 per ton FOB vessel.
The Indonesia coal pr ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
INDONESIA RV WAS DOWN TO LOW/MID $20,000S DAY FOR PANAMAX/KAMSARMAX WITH DELIVERY S CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
Panamax
A softening week in the Pacific basin with rates under a downward pressure mainly caused by the oversupply of tonnage in the area, said ...
Wednesday, 02 June 21
EUROPEAN UNION'S IRON ORE IMPORTS - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union (27) is currently the fourth largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, Japan, and South Korea.
Euro ...
Tuesday, 01 June 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 0.02 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 160.06 points Monday, down 0.02 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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