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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 12 May 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Tanker S&P is finally back!
For an extended period, Dry bulk & Wet market rates have been diverging, with the SnP deals on each sect ...
Monday, 10 May 21
PAKISTAN: COAL GASIFICATION AND LIQUEFACTION HARMFUL TO ECONOMY - IEEFA
There is no second life for coal
Pakistan’s intention to use coal for power production through gasification and liquefaction technologie ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
HERE'S WHY INVESTORS ARE POURING MONEY INTO COAL, DESPITE ITS BLEAK FUTURE - FORBES
Coal stocks have surged this year – along with the wider energy sector – but experts warn these are likely short-term gains for an indu ...
Sunday, 09 May 21
MAYBANK TO STOP COAL FINANCING - BERNAMA
Malayan Banking Bhd (Maybank) will stop financing new coal activities as part of its sustainable agenda.
Currently, coal financing m ...
Saturday, 08 May 21
LNG-TO-POWER INVESTORS IN THE PHILIPPINES RISK EXPOSURE TO $14 BILLION IN STRANDED ASSETS - IEEFA
High regulatory and financial uncertainty in the Philippines market
The race to develop liquified natural gas (LNG) facilities in th ...
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
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