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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 08 May 21
THE COAL-TO-RENEWABLES TRANSITION TAKES OFF - IEEFA
Pre-Biden changes underscore coming 10-year wave of coal plant retirements
The traditional S-curve growth exhibited by disruptive te ...
Friday, 07 May 21
CHINA'S TOTAL COAL IMPORTS FOR 2020 REACHED A VOLUME OF 304 MILLION TONS - ASSOCARBONI
Our benchmarks, manufacturing Countries like China, Germany, Japan, India, South Korea and Taiwan will continue to use a mix of coal and nuclear to ...
Friday, 07 May 21
SEABORNE WORLD COAL TRADE CLOSED 2020 IN NEGATIVE - ASSOCARBONI
Coal confirmed its leadership as leading fuel for electricity generation also in 2020, accounting for 38% of overall production. For the first time ...
Friday, 07 May 21
INDONESIA'S THERMAL COAL EXPORTS IN 2020 DECREASED BY 13%; INDIA REMAINED THE TOP DESTINATION FOR INDONESIAN COAL - ASSOCARBONI
An increase in seaborne trade is forecast for 2022, driven by markets in Southeast Asia, where growing demand for coal from Bangladesh, the Philipp ...
Friday, 30 April 21
HIGH-SULPHUR FUEL OIL SALES REBOUND AFTER PRE-IMO 2020 - BIMCO
HSFO sales are up 47.2% from Q1 2020, reaching 3.1m tonnes. This is however still less than a third of high-sulphur fuel sales in Q1 2019, before t ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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