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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Sunday, 18 April 21
WORLDSTEEL RAISES 2021 STEEL DEMAND GROWTH FORECAST TO 5.8% - WORLDSTEEL
The World Steel Association (worldsteel) today released its Short Range Outlook (SRO) for 2021 and 2022. worldsteel forecasts that steel demand wil ...
Sunday, 18 April 21
CHINA'S Q1 COAL OUTPUT RISES 16% ON STRONG DEMAND FOR WINTER HEATING - REUTERS
China’s coal output rose 16% in the first quarter from the same period last year, bolstered by strong demand for winter heating and robust in ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
INDIA HAS A RECORD LEVEL OF STOCKPILED COAL DAMPENING NEED FOR NEW DOMESTIC MINES - IEEFA
Proposed coal mining expansions at odds with excess supply
India has stockpiled a record 132 million tonnes of coal – enough t ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
BANGLADESH NEEDS A RENEWABLES FOCUS, NOT A SWITCH FROM 'COAL TO GAS' - IEEFA
Renewables are cheaper and more sustainable than gas imports, and can provide better energy security in developing nations
The emerg ...
Wednesday, 14 April 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX DOWN 1.10 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 138.05 points Monday, down 1.10 percent week on week.
The index, released by Chi ...
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- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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