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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 07 April 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the end of the catholic easter, during which the majority of shipping market participants were on holidays, it is interesting to note a f ...
Wednesday, 07 April 21
COAL USED TO GENERATE ELECTRIC POWER IN U.S. WILL INCREASE BY 13 PERCENT TO 495 MMST IN 2021 - EIA
EIA expects U.S. coal production to total 585 MMst in 2021, 46 MMst (9%) more than in 2020. In 2022, EIA expects coal production to grow by an addi ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
CHINA TAIYUAN COAL TRANSACTION PRICE INDEX UP 0.12 PCT - XINHUA
China Taiyuan coal transaction price index stood at 139.03 points Monday, up 0.12 percent week on week.
The index, released by China ...
Wednesday, 31 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Over the past week, the biggest story has been the blockage of the Suez Canal, as a result of the grounding of the container ship Ever Given. At th ...
Monday, 29 March 21
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR GLOBAL METALS AND MINING INDUSTRY TURNS POSITIVE ON HIGHER EBITDA IN PANDEMIC'S WAKE
- Demand for steel, iron ore and copper will rise, while aluminum, nickel and zinc will remain in surplus
- EBITDA is expected to ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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