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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Tuesday, 23 March 21
LOWER WHOLESALE PRICES PUT PRESSURE ON AUSTRALIAN ENERGY RETAILERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects the low wholesale energy prices in the Australian National Energy Market to persist through to 2022, which will affect electr ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
SCRUBBER-FITTED SHIPS NEARLY DOUBLE AS FUEL SPREAD SETTLES AT $118 PER MT - PETER SAND
As the lion’s share of the world fleet replaced high-sulphur fuel oil (HSFO) with low-sulphur fuel oil (LFSO) as a mean of propulsion to be c ...
Tuesday, 23 March 21
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT EDGES UP IN FIRST TWO MONTHS - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output rose 25 percent year on year to 620 million tonnes in the first two months of 2021, official data showed.
...
Wednesday, 17 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Shipping market players are familiar with the inverse correlation between the freight market and demolition activity i.e. when the market picks up ...
Friday, 12 March 21
INDIA SHOULD FOCUS ON REDUCING COAL POWER GENERATION INSTEAD OF CAPACITY - IEEFA
Nearly half of existing coal power in India is more expensive than new renewable power
To get to its ambitious climate targets, Indi ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
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