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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Saturday, 06 March 21
AUSTRALIAN COAL: SOME WEAKNESS COULD MATERIALIZE AFTER THE WINTER - ING
Newcastle coal prices remain well supported for now, however as we move out of the winter months we would expect prices to come under pressure. Mea ...
Saturday, 06 March 21
ASIA SEABORNE COAL PRICES START TO RETREAT, CHINA-AUSTRALIA DISPUTE LINGERS - REUTERS
There are signs that the price and demand surge for coal during the recent colder-than-expected winter across North Asia is starting to ease, even ...
Thursday, 04 March 21
HEAD OF JBIC SAYS THE JAPANESE BANK WILL NOT FUND NEW COAL PLANT DEVELOPMENT - NHK NEWS
The governor of the Japan Bank for International Cooperation has said that the government-owned financial institution will stop funding new coal-fi ...
Wednesday, 03 March 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Following the recent rally to multi year highs of metal-based commodities, amid an unprecedented global economic stimulus, discussions of an emergi ...
Saturday, 27 February 21
CHINA'S BENCHMARK POWER COAL PRICE EDGES DOWN - XINHUA
China’s benchmark power coal price dropped slightly during the past week.
The Bohai-Rim Steam-Coal Price Index (BSPI), a gauge ...
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- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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