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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Sunday, 21 February 21
ANZ DIVESTING FROM THE WORLD’S LARGEST COAL EXPORT PORT IS 'PRAGMATISM' - IEEFA
The biggest buyers of Australian thermal coal have committed to net-zero emissions
ANZ, Australia’s third largest bank, has decided to s ...
Sunday, 21 February 21
EDITORIAL: TIME FOR BANGLADESH TO FOCUS ON RENEWABLE ENERGY, NOT COAL - DHAKA TRIBUNE
Shifting away from coal is not only desirable, but absolutely necessary in these times.
In spite of being detrimental to environment ...
Wednesday, 17 February 21
STRANDED ASSETS A LONG-TERM RISK FOR MAJOR FOSSIL FUEL EXPORTERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fossil exporters face a loss of GDP, government revenue and export receipts from the transition to a lower-carbon economy over the coming decades. ...
Friday, 12 February 21
U.S: WIND SURPASSED COAL AS NO. 1 FUEL SOURCE IN 2020 FOR SOUTHWEST POWER POOL - IEEFA
Wind energy growth due to geography, design factors, and new installations
Wind surpassed coal as the primary power generation sourc ...
Wednesday, 10 February 21
FY21 COAL DEMAND MAY BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED DUE TO COVID-19: PRALHAD JOSHI - PTI
Coal demand in the current fiscal may be lower than the initial estimate of 1,085 million tonnes (MT) due to the impact of COVID-19, Parliament was ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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