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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Wednesday, 03 February 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
"2020 the year from hell for the entire world, had everything for shipowners. The introduction of the sulphur cap and VLSFO, a Pandemic outbre ...
Tuesday, 02 February 21
WILL THE ELECTRONIC B/L BE FULLY IMPLEMENTED? FIVE POINTS TO CONSIDER - MOL
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The trend towards digitization of Bills of Lading (B/L) has begun to attract attention in the trade and shipping industrie ...
Monday, 01 February 21
A 56,000-DWT OPEN MANILA WAS FIXED FOR A TRIP VIA INDONESIA REDELIVERY CHINA AT $11,500 - THE BALTIC BRIEFING
Capesize
The Capesize routes endured a week of slippage on rates, bringing the market back down to levels seen at the beginning of the month. D ...
Monday, 01 February 21
PAKISTAN: COAL DEMAND EXPECTED TO SPIKE IN 2021 - DAWN
Coal demand is expected to remain upbeat in 2021 as more coal-fired and captive power plants are coming up in the current year.
Acco ...
Friday, 29 January 21
COAL EXPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA TO MAINLAND CHINA DECLINED BY -22.2% Y-O-Y IN 2020 - BANCHERO COSTA
In the 12 months of 2020, global seaborne coal trade declined by as much as -12.7% year-on-year, according to vessel tracking data from Refinitiv, ...
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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