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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Friday, 29 January 21
OPEC+, COVID-19 AND ENERGY TRANSITION - 3 THEMES IMPACTING OIL MARKETS AND REFINING IN 2021 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Wood Mackenzie’s latest outlook report shows that the art of balancing oil markets and the refining sector in 2021 hinges upon three key them ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
STRONG CHINESE THERMAL COAL IMPORTS TO BENEFIT INDONESIAN MINERS IN THE NEAR TERM - FITCH RATINGS
China's thermal coal imports are likely to remain strong ahead of the Chinese New Year in mid-February on robust demand, high utilisation at do ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
WIND PROPULSION FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - OLDENDORFF
Oldendorff Carriers (OC) has signed a Joint Development Project (JDP) with Anemoi Marine Technologies (Anemoi), Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Sha ...
Thursday, 28 January 21
BUMA PRICED A USD400 MILLION 7.75% 5-YEAR SENIOR NOTES
PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama priced a USD400 million 5-year (non-callable 2-year)& ...
Wednesday, 27 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
As we have entered the era off renewable energies, all industries globally give max effort to minimize their carbon footprint and consequently thei ...
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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