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Friday, 12 November 21
RUSSIA-INDIA COKING COAL DEAL UNLIKELY TO IMPACT PANAMAX SHIPPING - DREWRY
Russia and India have recently entered into an agreement whereby Russia will supply up to 40 million tonnes of coking coal to India every year. Drewry believes this trade will have little or no impact on the demand for dry bulk shipping.
The Indian government plans to sharply lift the domestic production capacity of crude steel which could lead to even higher coking coal imports as it is a key raw material for steel production. The imports of coking coal have been rising over the past few years. While Australia is the predominant supplier of coking coal to India, accounting for around 80% of country’s imports of the commodity, the US and Canada supply the balance with Russia’s share at a negligible 1-2% annually. In 2020, the latter exported 1.2 million tonnes of coking coal to India.
As Indian steel mills are highly reliant on Australian coking coal, any disruption in the supply of the commodity in Australia could affect India’s steel production. The recent deal with Russia could be seen as an attempt by Indian coking coal traders to diversify their import portfolio and could eat into the share of Australian coal, leaving the shares of the US and Canada untouched.
Meanwhile, the Russian government plans to lift the country’s coal production to 668 million tonnes by 2035 from around 400 million tonnes in 2020 and thereby increase its presence in the Asian market. The country targets to lift its coal exports to 390 million tonnes from around 211 million tonnes in 2020, indicating that exports will rise by around 12 million tonnes per annum. In line with the country’s vison, some Russian companies such as Kolmar and Elga intend to ramp up their coal production volumes and port capacities.
Since Russia-India and Australia-India are predominantly Panamax routes, the impact of the recent deal on the demand for Panamax vessels will depend on the port that will supply coking coal to India. Russia has been exporting coal through Murmansk, Vanino, Vostochny and Ust-Luga, of which Vanino and Vostochny are almost equidistant from India, as is Australia, but Murmansk-India (and also Ust-Luga-India) is almost double the distance between India and Australia. As a result, for a given cargo volume, Murmansk-India and Ust-Luga-India should deploy twice the number of vessels than Australia-India, but for Vanino-India or Vostochny-India there will hardly be any addition in the overall vessel demand.
To estimate the influence of the Russia-India deal on vessel demand we assume that all four Russian ports will supply coal to India in equal quantities. At the speed of 11 knots, 40 million tonnes of coking coal trade on Russia-India would employ 94 odd Panamax vessels whereas the same cargo volume on Australia-India would need 66 Panamaxes, implying an increase of 28 Panamax vessels annually.
However, we believe the entire agreement between Russia and India for 40 million tonnes of annual coking coal trade will be difficult to materialise. The share of coking coal in Russia’s overall coal exports has been limited to 12-14% over the past five years. This means that even if the country’s coal exports will rise by 12 million tonnes per annum, coking coal exports could rise by just 1-2 million tonnes annually.
Moreover, even if the country is able to meet the agreed quantity, it seems that Russia would supply a major proportion of the coking coal through port Vanino as the country’s major coal companies are increasing their coal handling capacity at this port. While Kolmar group plans to lift the annual coal handling capacity of the VaninoTransUgol terminal by 12 million tonnes by 2023, Albert Avdolyan plans to construct a coal terminal at Vanino with annual handling capacity of 30 million tonnes. As mentioned above vessel demand on Vanino-India will be no different from that on Australia-India and any shift of cargo away from Australia-India and towards Vanino-India will have little impact on dry bulk shipping demand.
Source: Drewry
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Thursday, 21 January 21
LNG MARKET RIDING HIGH, BUT WILL THE GAINS CONTINUE? - DREWRY
The LNG market started 2021 on a high note with Asian spot prices crossing $30 per MMBtu while LNG shipping rates recorded a high $350k per day due ...
Thursday, 21 January 21
CHINA'S SPOT THERMAL COAL PRICES REFRESH RECORD HIGH - MYSTEEL
Despite the moderate rebound in temperatures across most regions of China after late December’s deep-freeze, thermal coal prices in the count ...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK IN HEBEI HAS LIMITED IMPACT ON CHINA'S STEEL INDUSTRY - FITCH RATINGS
The recent Covid-19 outbreak in the steel producing hub Hebei will not have material impact on China’s steel industry, Fitch Ratings says.
...
Wednesday, 20 January 21
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While 2020 is finally behind us, its negative impacts are still hovering over the shipping market. That being said, it is still too early to even s ...
Saturday, 16 January 21
SEABORNE TRADE IN STEAM COAL DECREASED BY 11.6% FROM 937 MILLION TONNES IN 2019 TO 828 MILLION TONNES IN 2020 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION, GERMANY
According to preliminary calculations by the German Coal Importers Association (Verein der Kohlenimporteure e. V.), global hard coal production dec ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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